Thinking method · Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

Ask how common it is first

Putting the background frequency before the vivid detail. Any judgement where a detailed story is doing the persuading.

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Putting the background frequency before the vivid detail.

The steps

1. Before assessing a specific case, ask how common the thing is in general.
2. Write that number, even roughly.
3. Now add the specific evidence and ask how much it should really move you.
4. Notice when a compelling story has pushed you far past what the frequency allows.

When to use it

Any judgement where a detailed story is doing the persuading.

What it will not do

Base rates can be stale or from the wrong population. State where yours came from.

Where it comes from: Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow. Described in our own words.