Thinking method · Duke, Thinking in Bets

Separate the decision from the outcome

Judging a choice by what you knew at the time, not by how it turned out. Any repeated decision — hiring, investing, applying, choosing what to build.

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Judging a choice by what you knew at the time, not by how it turned out.

The steps

1. Before deciding, write what you expect and how confident you are, as a rough percentage.
2. Write what you do not know, and which of those you could find out.
3. Decide, and put the record somewhere you will actually find it again — a note with a date beats a memory.
4. When the outcome arrives, ask first: was this luck or was this the reasoning?
5. Update the reasoning only where the reasoning was wrong.

When to use it

Any repeated decision — hiring, investing, applying, choosing what to build.

What it will not do

A single outcome is almost never enough to judge a decision process. The value is across many.

Where it comes from: Duke, Thinking in Bets. Described in our own words.