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Thinking method · Bergstrom & West, Calling Bullshit

The six-question claim check

A fixed pass over any claim before you act on it. Any number, statistic or confident claim you are about to repeat or act on.

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A fixed pass over any claim before you act on it.

The steps

  1. What exactly is being claimed? State it so it could be false.
  2. What evidence is offered, and could that evidence have come out the other way?
  3. What is missing — who is not in the sample, what period, compared with what?
  4. What else could explain the same observation?
  5. Who benefits if I believe this?
  6. What would change my mind?

When to use it

Any number, statistic or confident claim you are about to repeat or act on.

What it will not do

Passing the check does not make a claim true. Failing it is the useful signal.

Where it comes from: Bergstrom & West, Calling Bullshit. Described in our own words.

The module it belongs to

  • Critical Thinking — Evaluate claims and evidence

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