Mental model · Where thinking goes wrong
Regression to the mean
Regression to the mean: Extreme results tend to be followed by more ordinary ones, with no cause required.
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Extreme results tend to be followed by more ordinary ones, with no cause required.
Try it now
Find a recent unusually good or bad result in your work. Ask what would happen next if nothing at all changed.
What to do with the answer
Wait for the ordinary result before attributing a cause — and before rewarding or punishing anyone for it.
Where it misleads
Real changes exist too. This says do not assume a cause from a single extreme, not that causes never occur.
The module it belongs to
- Logical Thinking — Reason consistently
The book behind it
- The drunkards walk — Its big ideas, in our own words.