Mental model · Where thinking goes wrong
Survivorship bias
Survivorship bias: Drawing lessons from the visible successes, because the failures are not there to be counted.
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Drawing lessons from the visible successes, because the failures are not there to be counted.
Try it now
Take a success story that influenced you. Ask how many people did the same thing, and where they are now.
What to do with the answer
If you cannot find out, treat the lesson as a possibility rather than a method.
Where it misleads
Some success really is replicable. The model tells you to check, not to dismiss.
The module it belongs to
- Critical Thinking — Evaluate claims and evidence
The book behind it
- Fooled by randomness — Its big ideas, in our own words.