Mental model · Where thinking goes wrong
Anchoring
Anchoring: The first number mentioned shapes every judgement after it, even when it is known to be arbitrary.
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The first number mentioned shapes every judgement after it, even when it is known to be arbitrary.
Try it now
Recall a negotiation or purchase. Write the first number that appeared, and how close the final one was to it.
What to do with the answer
Decide your own number before hearing theirs, and write it down where you cannot quietly revise it.
Where it misleads
You cannot un-hear an anchor. The counter is preparing your own figure first, not resisting theirs.
The module it belongs to
- Decision Thinking — Make better decisions under uncertainty
The book behind it
- Predictably irrational — Its big ideas, in our own words.