Mental model · Where thinking goes wrong
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Judging how likely something is by how easily an example comes to mind.
Try it now
Write a risk you worry about. Ask how you came to hear about it, and how often it actually occurs.
What to do with the answer
Replace the vivid example with a frequency, even a rough one, before deciding anything.
Where it misleads
Sometimes the vivid case is common as well as memorable. The model says check the frequency, not ignore the example.
The module it belongs to
- Critical Thinking — Evaluate claims and evidence
The book behind it
- Thinking fast and slow — Its big ideas, in our own words.