Think · Lesson 2 of 2

First principles and systems

Break it down, see how the pieces connect, and be honest about how sure you are.

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First-principles thinking means breaking a problem down to what you know is true and rebuilding from there, instead of copying how it is usually done. "Why does it cost this much?" "What does the customer actually need?"

Systems thinking means looking at how parts affect each other over time. A fix in one place often creates a problem somewhere else; a small delay can grow into a big one.

Probabilistic thinking adds a third lens: most things are not certain, they are more or less likely. Saying "I'm about 70% sure" is often more honest — and more useful — than yes or no.

See it happen

Your evenings keep disappearing, and you decide what you need is a better planning app.

The read that arrives on its own

The problem is disorganisation, so the answer is a better way to organise.

The same situation, with this idea

You draw it instead: work runs late → you eat at nine → you are too tired to start anything → you scroll → you sleep late → the next day starts slow. Every arrow points back at when work ends. A fourth app sits entirely outside that loop.

What changed

Naming the pieces and the arrows between them moved the problem. The first framing had a solution built into it — "an app" — which quietly ended the search before it began. The second found the one link that changes everything downstream of it.

The takeaway

Break it down, see how the pieces connect, and be honest about how sure you are.

Easy to take the wrong way

Treating this as a demand for a full diagram every time. Most problems deserve one minute and one arrow. The map earns its keep when the same problem has already been solved twice and come back anyway.

Try this

Pick one problem in your life and draw it as boxes and arrows: what causes what?