Thinking method · Goodhart, via Meadows

Check what the measure will do

Predicting how a target will be met in ways you did not intend. Any time you set a target, for a team or for yourself.

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Predicting how a target will be met in ways you did not intend.

The steps

1. Write the measure you are about to use.
2. Ask: how would someone maximise this number without doing the underlying thing?
3. List three such ways. They are not hypothetical; someone will find them.
4. Decide whether you can live with that, or need a second measure that catches it.

When to use it

Any time you set a target, for a team or for yourself.

What it will not do

You cannot measure your way out of this. You can only choose which distortion you prefer.

Where it comes from: Goodhart, via Meadows. Described in our own words.