Mental model · Numbers & chance
Small numbers lie
Small numbers lie: Extreme results appear easily in small samples, which is why the best and worst are so often the smallest groups.
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Extreme results appear easily in small samples, which is why the best and worst are so often the smallest groups.
Try it now
Find a comparison you rely on. Write how many cases are behind each side of it.
What to do with the answer
If either side is small, treat the difference as unproven rather than as a finding.
Where it misleads
Small samples can still be informative when the effect is large. The rule is to be suspicious, not to discard.
The module it belongs to
- Logical Thinking — Reason consistently
The book behind it
- How not to be wrong — Its big ideas, in our own words.