Mental model · Numbers & chance
Correlation is not causation
Correlation is not causation: Two things moving together does not tell you which caused which, or whether something else caused both.
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Two things moving together does not tell you which caused which, or whether something else caused both.
Try it now
Take a causal claim you believe. Write three other explanations: a common cause, reverse direction, and coincidence.
What to do with the answer
Write what evidence would tell them apart, then decide whether you can get it.
Where it misleads
Overused, it becomes a way to dismiss any finding. Correlation IS evidence — it just is not proof of direction.
The module it belongs to
- Critical Thinking — Evaluate claims and evidence