Thinking books · Critical thinking · Daniel Levitin, 2016
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics — the big ideas
A practical guide to the ways numbers, graphs and expert claims mislead.
Free — no account needed to read
The big ideas
Averages hide distributions: a mean can describe a group in which nobody resembles the mean, and choosing mean, median or mode changes the story without changing the data.
Percentages need their base stated. A hundred percent increase on a tiny number is a tiny number, and headlines rely on you not asking.
Expertise is domain-specific, and a credential in one field is not evidence in another — a check that is easy to apply and rarely applied.
Practise it — no need to have read it
Find a percentage in something you read this week. Work out the absolute numbers behind it.
A hint: Then decide whether the claim still means what it appeared to mean.
Where it shows up in real life
- Reading reports
- Your own metrics
- Evaluating claims in a pitch
Described in our own words with the source named — never quoted, and not a substitute for reading the book.
Thinking methods from this book
- The six-question claim check — A fixed pass over any claim before you act on it.
The thinking it builds
- Critical Thinking — Evaluate claims and evidence
- Logical Thinking — Reason consistently