Module 7 · Thinking & Decisions

Living with uncertainty

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Good navigation does not require perfect certainty.

By the end of this module

You will act on incomplete information without recklessness, know when you have researched enough, treat choices as experiments, and change your mind without shame.

Lessons

• Acting before you can know everything — You will never have all the information. The question is how much is enough. (7 min)
• Risk, uncertainty and ambiguity — Some unknowns can be estimated. Some can’t. They call for different responses. (8 min)
• Enough information — and endless research — Gathering information helps until it becomes a way of not deciding. (7 min)
• Acting as an experiment — Try something small, watch what happens, and update what you believe. (7 min)
• Being wrong, changing your mind, making peace — Every decision made without certainty will sometimes be wrong. That is not a flaw in you. (8 min)