A decision record captures what you decided, why, the conditions, the main risks and what would change your mind. It turns each decision into something you can learn from later.
9 min read · Level 4
I think the most valuable line in a decision record is 'what would change my mind', because it is the only one that turns a past decision into a rule for a future one. Everything else explains the decision; that line lets it keep working after the excitement has gone.
Every decision - invest, pass or wait - gets a short record written at the time.
Field Example Decision Invest 10,000 at 8,000,000 post-money Thesis fit Full fit Main reasons (up to three) Verified retention; founder with deep industry experience; efficient sales Evidence versus assumptions Retention verified; pricing power assumed Main risk Competitor response from a large incumbent Expected multiple About 2.5x, with a 60% chance of loss Conditions IP assignment signed before closing What would change my mind Net revenue retention below 95% over the next year Review date In 12 months
A decision to pass deserves a record too:
Decision Pass Reason Price implies an exit I consider unrealistic What would make me reconsider A new round at a lower price, or ARR above 3,000,000
Five minutes at the time of the decision is enough.
Because memory rewrites decisions. After an outcome is known, investors tend to remember being more certain, and to credit or blame the wrong factors.
A written record allows an honest review: was a good outcome the result of good reasoning or luck, and was a bad outcome a bad decision or a reasonable risk that did not work?
Educational, not personalised financial advice. Nothing in the Investor Academy is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything — what is right for you depends on your own circumstances and the rules where you live.
Review after 12 months.
Recorded main risk: competitor response What actually happened: competitor did not respond; the company lost two large customers to an internal build Recorded 'change my mind': net revenue retention below 95% Actual: 88%
The investor sees that the risk they recorded was not the one that materialised, and that their pre-set signal has been triggered. They decline to follow on, based on a rule written before emotions were involved, and add 'customers building internally' to their diligence checklist.
Recording only positive decisions, or writing the reasons after the outcome is known.
Complete it before money moves or the pass is sent.
Keep it short and specific.
Define a measurable trigger.
Compare the record with what happened, separating process from outcome.
For every investment decision, including passes and follow-on decisions.
Do not let records become long memos that are never read; a short, consistent format is more useful.
Investors and decision researchers, including writers on judgement such as Annie Duke and Michael Mauboussin, have advocated decision journals that record reasoning and expectations at the time of a decision, so that later reviews can separate decision quality from outcomes.
Separating decision quality from results requires a record made before the results are known.
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