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The list price is a claim; the realised price is the evidence

Pricing diligence compares list prices with what customers actually pay, checks discounting patterns and looks for evidence that customers would accept higher prices.

10 min read · Level 3

The point

A company that has never raised its prices does not yet know whether it has pricing power, and I think that uncertainty should be treated as a risk rather than a neutral fact. Customers who stay through a price rise are the strongest evidence of value a young company can offer.

What is it?

Pricing diligence asks what customers really pay and whether they would pay more.

Realised price versus list price.

List price per annual contract 20,000 Average price actually paid 13,000 Average discount (20,000 - 13,000) / 20,000 = 35%

Discounts are normal. What matters is the pattern:

Are discounts growing over time? Are new customers paying less than earlier ones? Are large discounts needed to close deals against a competitor? Are free months or extra services hidden outside the headline discount?

Evidence of willingness to pay.

Price increases accepted without higher churn Customers expanding usage at full price Deals won without discounting Customers describing the product as essential rather than useful

Why does an investor care?

Because revenue projections assume prices hold. A company growing by cutting prices can show strong customer numbers while revenue per customer and margins quietly fall.

Pricing power is also one of the clearest signals of genuine value: customers pay more for things they cannot easily do without.

Educational, not personalised financial advice. Nothing in the Investor Academy is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything — what is right for you depends on your own circumstances and the rules where you live.

Example

Discounts over three years.

Year Average list Average paid Discount 1 20,000 16,000 20% 2 20,000 14,500 27.5% 3 20,000 13,000 35%

Customer count has doubled, but average price per new customer has fallen by 3,000 (16,000 to 13,000), about 19%. Revenue growth is weaker than customer growth suggests, and deeper discounts may be what is sustaining it.

The common mistake

Using list price in revenue projections, or treating customer growth as evidence of strength without checking what those customers pay.

How it works

Step 1: Compare list and realised prices

Calculate average discounts and how they have changed.

Step 2: Break down by cohort and deal type

Check whether newer or competitive deals are discounted more.

Step 3: Look for accepted price increases

Find whether customers stayed through price rises.

Step 4: Ask customers what they would do if the price rose

Use calls to test how essential the product is.

When to use this

During diligence on any company with published or negotiated pricing.

When not to use it

Do not assume discounts are always bad; early companies often discount deliberately to win reference customers.

How investors actually did it

A recurring pattern: subscription price rises and churn

Large subscription businesses in media and software have publicly reported implementing price increases and then disclosing subscriber or retention figures in subsequent results, and analysts routinely examine those disclosures for evidence of whether customers accepted the change.

How customers respond to a price increase is one of the most-watched signals of value in subscription businesses.

Do this now

  • Ask one company for average realised price by year
  • Calculate the discount trend

Create a free account to read the rest and apply it to your own investing.

Related lessons

  • Each customer must be worth more than it costs to win — Unit economics compare what a single customer or order contributes with what it costs to acquire and serve. Growth only creates value when those numbers work. (11 min)
  • How a company makes money determines what good numbers look like — Subscription software, marketplaces, transactional businesses, advertising, hardware and services each have different margins, growth patterns and risks. The same metric means different things across them. (11 min)
  • The most important line in an update is often the one that is missing — Founders naturally lead with good news. Reading an update well means comparing it with last period, noticing which figures disappeared and separating real warning signs from normal early-stage noise. (11 min)

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