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The customers you find yourself tell you more than the ones you are given

Customer calls are the most direct evidence of demand. They are most useful when they ask about past behaviour and include customers the company did not choose.

10 min read · Level 3

The point

The most informative customer call I know of is with someone who stopped paying. Happy customers tell you the product works for them; a departed customer tells you where it breaks, and that is usually the thing the pitch was carefully designed not to mention.

What is it?

A company will usually offer references. Those customers are chosen, and they are almost always positive. They are still useful, but they are not a sample.

Better calls combine:

Source What it shows Company-provided references best-case experience Customers found independently typical experience Former customers who left why the product fails some people Prospects who chose a competitor what the product lacks

The questions matter as much as the source. Ask about what people have done, not what they might do:

Weak question: Would you recommend this product? Better: When did you last use it, and for what? Weak question: Will you renew? Better: What did you use before, and what would you do if it disappeared? Better: Who approved the purchase, and what did they compare it with?

Past behaviour is harder to exaggerate than intentions.

Why does an investor care?

Because customers are one of the few sources outside the company's control. Their experience either supports the pitch or it does not, and the gaps are often where the real risks are.

It also catches what metrics hide. A contract can be active while the customer has already decided not to renew.

Educational, not personalised financial advice. Nothing in the Investor Academy is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything — what is right for you depends on your own circumstances and the rules where you live.

Example

Eight customer calls.

Five company-provided references: all positive, three use it daily Three customers found through an industry contact: one enthusiastic, two say they are evaluating a cheaper alternative at renewal

The company's retention data shows 95% of customers renewing last year. The independent calls suggest renewal risk is rising. The investor asks for renewal dates and usage data for the next twelve months of renewals before going further.

The common mistake

Relying only on references chosen by the company, or asking hypothetical questions that invite polite enthusiasm.

How it works

Step 1: Take the provided references

Use them, knowing they represent the best case.

Step 2: Find customers independently

Use your own network, industry contacts or public customer lists.

Step 3: Speak to someone who left

Ask former customers why they stopped.

Step 4: Ask about past behaviour

Focus on actual usage, purchasing decisions and alternatives.

When to use this

During diligence on any company that has customers.

When not to use it

Do not contact customers without the company's knowledge where that would breach confidentiality or damage the relationship; agree the approach first.

How investors actually did it

A recurring pattern: 'The Mom Test' approach to interviews

Customer development practitioners widely recommend interview techniques that focus on specific past behaviour rather than opinions or hypothetical futures, because people tend to give encouraging answers to questions about ideas and intentions. The approach is commonly associated with the book The Mom Test.

Ask what people did, not what they think they will do.

Do this now

  • Rewrite one hypothetical customer question as a question about past behaviour
  • Identify one way to reach a customer the company did not name

Create a free account to read the rest and apply it to your own investing.

Related lessons

  • What you were told, what you inferred, and what you checked — Almost everything that later turns out to be wrong was never actually verified - it was assumed, because it arrived alongside things that were true. (10 min)
  • The information request, and what a refusal tells you — What you ask for, and the order you ask for it in, determines what you learn. The response to the request is frequently more informative than the documents themselves. (13 min)
  • Red flags: the signals that mean slow down — A red flag is not a reason to stop. It is a reason to stop moving at the speed you were moving, and to go and find out which of two explanations is the true one. (11 min)

Next: If one customer can leave, measure what leaves with them