Module 6 · Worry, rumination & thought patterns · Moderate evidence

Living with uncertainty

Much worry is an attempt to make the unknown certain. Learning to tolerate not knowing.

7 min read · Level: Practising · Free — no account needed to read

The idea

A lot of worry is an attempt to make the unknown certain. If you can just think it through enough, the reasoning goes, you’ll know what will happen and be safe. But the future can’t be made certain, so the worrying never finishes.

Researchers have found that people who find uncertainty especially hard to tolerate tend to worry more. Treatments for excessive worry often focus on building tolerance for not knowing, rather than on answering every “what if”.

Building tolerance means practising small doses of uncertainty on purpose: making a small decision without researching every option, trying a new restaurant without reading reviews, sending a message without rereading it three times — and noticing that you cope.

Why it works

Since certainty is impossible, being able to live with not knowing is more useful than any amount of worrying.

A real example

The situation

Before any decision, Arjun researches for hours — even buying headphones took him two weeks of reading reviews.

What happened

He practises small doses of uncertainty: choosing a film in five minutes, ordering from a menu without asking for recommendations. Most choices turn out fine; one or two don’t, and he copes. Bigger uncertainties start to feel a little less threatening.

The takeaway

Practising with small unknowns built the tolerance he needed for bigger ones.

Use this when you are…

• you need to know for sure before you can relax
• you over-research small decisions
• waiting for news feels unbearable

Common mistakes

• Seeking reassurance repeatedly, which gives brief relief and makes uncertainty harder over time.
• Believing enough thinking will produce certainty.
• Starting with the biggest uncertainty in your life instead of small ones.

What the evidence says

Moderate evidence: Several studies support it, but the effects are smaller, the studies are fewer or less rigorous, or results vary between groups.

Research, notably by Michel Dugas and colleagues, links intolerance of uncertainty with worry, and treatments targeting it show good results for generalised worry. Everyday practice exercises are drawn from these treatments.

Where this comes from: Worry and anxiety research; Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) research; Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) research.

Fields that study this: Clinical psychology.

Try it now: A small dose of not knowing

1. Pick a small decision you would normally over-research.
2. Make it within five minutes, without looking anything up.
3. Notice the discomfort, and notice that you cope with whatever happens.

Practise with a guided technique

• Urge surfing — (3–5 min · Emerging evidence)
• Mindful attention to the breath — (5–10 min · Moderate evidence)
• Best, worst, most likely — (5 min · Practical evidence)

Questions to think about

• Where in your life do you most need to be sure?
• What small uncertainty could you practise with this week?

Try this today

Make one small decision today quickly, without checking or researching.

Afterwards, ask yourself

What did you notice when you let a small thing stay uncertain?

Words in this lesson

• Intolerance of uncertainty — Finding it very hard to live with not knowing what will happen. It is linked with worrying more.
• Worry — Repetitive thinking about possible future problems. Unlike problem solving, it tends to go round in circles without reaching a next step.