Guided technique · Thought work · 5 min

Best, worst, most likely

For a fear about the future, writing down the best case, the worst case and the most likely case — and a plan for the most likely one.

Level: Beginner · Free — no account needed to read

For a fear about the future, writing down the best case, the worst case and the most likely case — and a plan for the most likely one.

Why it may help

Anxious minds focus on the worst case and treat it as likely. Naming the most likely outcome brings the fear closer to its real size and gives you something practical to prepare for.

When to use it

• you are catastrophising about an outcome
• you fear an upcoming event
• a decision is being driven by fear

Helps with

• Catastrophising
• Fear of an outcome

How to do it

1. Write the situation you are worried about.
2. Write the worst case — then, if it happened, how you would cope.
3. Write the best case.
4. Write the most likely case, and one thing you could do to prepare for it.

What the evidence says

Practical technique: A widely used, low-risk practice drawn from established approaches, but not tested much on its own. Its value is mostly that it is simple and harmless to try.

What was found

Research shows anxious people tend to overestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes, and estimating realistic probabilities is part of cognitive therapy for anxiety.

What is uncertain

This exercise on its own is a practical tool rather than a separately tested technique.

Who it may not suit

If the worst case involves real danger or harm, focus on getting practical help and safety rather than on reassuring yourself.

Where this comes from: Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) research; Worry and anxiety research.

Afterwards, ask yourself

How did the most likely outcome compare with the one you feared?