Cohort analysis

Group users by when they joined and follow each group. It is the only way to tell real improvement from a growing pile of signups.

What is it?

A cohort is a group of users who joined in the same period. Cohort analysis follows each group separately over time, so you can see whether the product is getting better for successive groups.

Why does a founder care?

Because aggregate numbers hide almost everything worth knowing. A company can look like it is growing while every single cohort is collapsing — the growth is just new signups arriving faster than old ones leave.

Cohorts are also how you prove a change worked. If the March cohort retains better than January's, something you did between them helped.

Example

Cohort    M1     M2     M3     M4     M5
Jan      100%   38%    24%    19%    18%
Feb      100%   41%    27%    22%    21%
Mar      100%   52%    38%    35%     —
Apr      100%   58%    44%     —     —
May      100%   61%     —     —     —

Read it two ways.

Down a column — M2 retention improved from 38% to 61% across five cohorts. Something changed for the better, consistently.

Along a row — each cohort's curve flattens. January settles around 18–19%; March around 35%. Flattening is the signal that a stable group has genuinely adopted the product.

What this table says: the product got substantially better around March, and the improvement held. If you know what shipped in March, you know what to do more of.

An aggregate retention number would have shown none of this.

The common mistake

First-time founders often look at a single aggregate retention figure and cannot tell whether things are improving. The whole point is comparison between cohorts.

The second mistake: reading too much into a small or recent cohort. A cohort of eleven users tells you very little, and this month's cohort has not had time to churn yet.

The third: only cohorting users, never revenue. Revenue cohorts show expansion and are how you see net revenue retention above 100%.

How it works

Step 1: Group by join period

Weekly for fast products, monthly for slower B2B. Match it to your natural usage cycle.

Step 2: Track each cohort forward

What percentage of that original group is still active in each subsequent period?

Step 3: Read down the columns for improvement

Is month-2 retention getting better for later cohorts? That is your product improving.

Step 4: Read along the rows for flattening

Does the curve level out above zero? That is the signal of genuine adoption.

Step 5: Annotate with what you shipped

Mark the month you changed onboarding. Without annotations you see the improvement and cannot attribute it.

Step 6: Do it for revenue too

Revenue cohorts reveal expansion, and NRR above 100% is the strongest signal in SaaS.

When to use this

Monthly, once you have at least a few dozen users per cohort and six weeks of history.

When not to use it

Not useful with very small cohorts or a very short history. Below about thirty users per cohort the noise exceeds the signal.

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