Where startup ideas actually come from, how to tell a problem from an idea, how to judge whether an opportunity is worth years of your life, and how to size a market honestly.
What should I build?
Lessons
Problems versus ideas — An idea is a guess about a solution. A problem is a fact about someone's life. Start from the fact. (10 min)
Evaluating an idea honestly — Nine dimensions, assessed as evidence rather than as a score. What you know, what you assume, and what is still unvalidated. (15 min)
Market size — TAM, SAM and SOM — How to size a market bottom-up so the number means something, instead of the '1% of a $50B market' slide everyone has seen. (12 min)
Competition and defensibility — Everyone has competitors, including spreadsheets and doing nothing. What matters is why you win a specific segment, and what stops a copy. (12 min)