Thinking method · Raynor, The Strategy Paradox

Three futures, one move

Stress-testing a plan against several futures instead of predicting one. Committing resources under real uncertainty.

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Stress-testing a plan against several futures instead of predicting one.

The steps

1. Write three genuinely different futures: much as now, changed considerably, changed in a way you did not expect.
2. For each, write what you would do.
3. Find the move that is reasonable in all three. Take that one now.
4. For the moves that only work in one, write the signal that would tell you that future is arriving.
5. Keep those as options, not commitments.

When to use it

Committing resources under real uncertainty.

What it will not do

Three futures you can imagine. The one that arrives is often a fourth.

Where it comes from: Raynor, The Strategy Paradox. Described in our own words.