Mental model · Reasoning
Second-order thinking
Second-order thinking: Following consequences past the one you intended. Check whether anything at step two or three undoes step one.
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Following consequences past the one you intended.
Try it now
Take a change you are about to make. Write the intended effect, then ask "and then what?" three times.
What to do with the answer
Check whether anything at step two or three undoes step one. That is the cheapest protection there is.
Where it misleads
Three steps out you are guessing, and it can produce paralysis. Use it on changes that are hard to reverse.
The module it belongs to
- Systems Thinking — Understand connections and consequences
The book behind it
- The fifth discipline — Its big ideas, in our own words.