Decision Thinking · Lesson 1 of 4

Decisions are not predictions

Write what you are optimising for before you look at the options, or the options will write it for you.

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A prediction is a claim about what will happen. A decision is a choice about what to do given that you do not know. Treating a decision as a prediction problem leads to waiting for certainty that is not coming.

Every decision needs a stated objective, and stating it is harder than it sounds because there are usually several. "Take the job" might serve income, learning, or proximity to family, and those rank differently. Unstated objectives are where regret comes from.

Write the objective before the options. Once options are on the table, objectives quietly rearrange themselves to justify the one you already want.

See it happen

Two job offers: one pays more, one is work you find interesting.

The read that arrives on its own

You build a pros-and-cons list and the longer column wins.

The same situation, with this idea

Before looking at either: what am I optimising for over the next two years — money, skill, people, or optionality? Written down first, "skill and the people I would work with" makes the list an input rather than the decision.

What changed

When the criterion is not written first, the options write it. A pros-and-cons list silently weights everything equally and hands the decision to whichever option was easier to describe.

The takeaway

Write what you are optimising for before you look at the options, or the options will write it for you.

Easy to take the wrong way

Writing criteria after seeing the options. They will be shaped by the option you are already leaning towards, and the exercise becomes a justification.

Try this

For a decision you face, rank your top three objectives before considering any choice.