Comparables and multiples, discounted cash flow, yield-based valuation, and what each method is actually for, and where each one breaks down.
Why a price is always a range, never a point
Lessons
Why valuation is a range, and never a number — Every valuation method takes uncertain inputs and multiplies them together, so the output is a band rather than a figure. The habit worth building is refusing to collapse it. (9 min)
Discounted cash flow: the method that shows its assumptions — A discounted cash flow states every assumption out loud, which is its great virtue and the reason it is so easy to abuse. The output moves enormously on inputs that cannot be observed. (14 min)
Yield-based valuation: pricing the income — Start from the money the asset actually pays out and the return you require, and the price falls out of the division. The simplicity is real, and it conceals the same growth assumption everything else makes. (11 min)
What each method is for, and what to do when they disagree — Three methods on one asset produce three different answers, and the disagreement is the most useful output. Averaging it away destroys the only thing the exercise produced. (10 min)
Work backwards: what would have to be true to justify this price? — Rather than producing your own valuation and comparing it with the price, take the price as given and solve for the growth or margins it assumes. Then judge whether those assumptions are plausible. (11 min)