Probability versus certainty, confirmation bias and FOMO, overconfidence and anchoring, survivorship bias, loss aversion, and thinking independently of the crowd.
The behaviours that separate good decisions from good luck
Lessons
Probability, not certainty — Every investment is a bet on a distribution of outcomes, not a prediction of one. Once you think in probabilities, a loss stops being proof you were wrong. (10 min)
Confirmation bias and the fear of missing out — Two failures that feel like diligence and enthusiasm: reading only what agrees with you, and buying because the decision is being made for you by other people's excitement. (11 min)
Overconfidence and anchoring — You know less precisely than you feel you do, and the first number you saw is still quietly steering the decision you think you are making freshly. (9 min)
Survivorship bias — Almost every success story you can read about was selected for having succeeded. The ones that would have made the lesson honest are not in the sample. (8 min)
Loss aversion — Losing hurts roughly twice as much as the same gain feels good, and that asymmetry pushes investors into two opposite errors depending on which way the position has moved. (11 min)
Thinking independently — Returns above average require a view that differs from the average and turns out to be right. Everything in this lesson is about making that possible without it becoming mere contrarianism. (12 min)