How to build a real investment thesis - what you believe about a market or opportunity, and why - so you can evaluate deals against a standard instead of a feeling.
What you believe, and why, before you look at a single deal
Lessons
A thesis is a belief that can be wrong. A preference cannot. — Most people who say they have an investment thesis have a preference - a list of things they like the sound of. The difference is whether anything could show it to be mistaken. (10 min)
The list of things you have decided not to do — An anti-thesis is written in advance and costs nothing to write, which is exactly why it works when the attractive version of the thing you swore off finally shows up. (9 min)
The first forty minutes decide the next forty hours — A thesis is only worth writing if it changes what you do at intake. This is the mechanics of applying it fast enough to protect the time it was meant to protect. (13 min)
The annual hour that decides whether you learn anything — A thesis that is never reviewed is a belief you happen to have held for years. The review is where a written thesis converts into judgement, and it has to separate what you got right from what merely worked. (11 min)