Speculation

Putting money at risk on an outcome you cannot analyse with any real confidence, hoping for a large payoff.

Example

Buying a coin with no working product because its price chart looks like it is going up.

Important

Speculation is not automatically a mistake, but calling it 'investing' hides how much of the outcome is chance rather than analysis.

Related terms

  • Trader — Someone who buys and sells based on expected near-term price movement, not on the underlying asset changing in value.
  • Risk — The chance that an investment's actual outcome differs from what you expected, in either direction.
  • Permanent loss of capital — Money that is gone for good - the business failed, the asset became worthless, or it was sold at the bottom and never bought back.

Lessons that explain it

  • No coupon, no rent, no earnings: the next buyer is the return — There is no income here by default and no cash flow to discount. Where a protocol does pay a yield, the useful question is not how much - it is where the money comes from, and sometimes the honest answer is other holders. (11 min)
  • A sized bet, renewed on purpose — If it belongs anywhere, it belongs as a position small enough that a total loss is survivable - and the diversification argument most often used to justify it has a habit of failing in exactly the weeks it is needed. (9 min)
  • For most readers, nowhere - and the exceptions are narrow — Derivatives can hedge specific risks or adjust a portfolio at a known cost, but they are not needed to invest well, and for most people the right allocation is zero. (8 min)
  • Manage the currency risk you already have; think hard before adding more — For most investors, currencies belong in portfolio thinking as a risk to manage, not a market to trade. Leveraged currency trading has no natural place in a long-term plan. (8 min)
  • Fraud, and the tells that give it away — Most investment fraud does not look exotic. It arrives through someone you already trust, offers returns that are only slightly too good, and fails a small number of checks that take an afternoon. (12 min)
  • Buying the story — A good narrative is not evidence, and it is the most reliable way to end up paying a price that only works if the story is much better than it says. (8 min)

All 578 terms in the Investing glossary